Background
The prairie warbler is dependent on disturbed habitats and breeds in shrub-scrub habitats¹, generally with dry soils and at relatively low elevations².  Prairie warblers winter in the Caribbean and breed in the eastern US², mostly in the southeastern US, but extending north to Maine and west to Michigan³.  Breeding individuals return to the same location to breed from year to year¹.  However, because the habitat they breed in is frequently ephemeral, there is some flexibility that allows for colonization of newly disturbed habitat². 

Reduction of agricultural activity since the late 1800s² and succession of forests to more mature stages over the past several decades has resulted in a decrease in available habitat for prairie warblers⁴.  As a result, this species has undergone declines in abundance.  Active habitat management is often required to maintain shrubland habitats and avoid forest succession.

Climate Impacts
Though many species of short-distance migrants already show evidence of earlier spring arrival in response to climate change, prairie warblers breeding in Massachusetts and New York do not appear to be shifting their migration timing⁵.  Nevertheless, modeling conducted by the US Forest Service anticipates a northward range shift for prairie warblers over the next century³.  Within Massachusetts, this includes expansion into unoccupied higher elevations in the Berkshires.  Modeling studies conducted by the University of Massachusetts that look at climate predict an increase in suitable habitat in Massachusetts by the year 2080⁶.