Background
The Canada warbler breeds from the southern boreal forests of Canada south into the Great Lakes region and the northeast US, extending along the Appalachian Mountains¹.  The Canada warbler is a long-distance migrant that winters in South America^2,3.  Several studies associate Canada warblers with young, regenerating forest 6-20 years post-harvest, with disturbances (such as tree falls and insect outbreaks), and with forested wetlands^1,4.  They appear to be dependent upon well-developed understory shrub layers typically found in these forest types^1,4.  Their highest natural densities are in swamps and riparian forests.

In Massachusetts, Canada warblers appear to be strongly associated with wetlands that have a dense understory mixed with significant coniferous growth⁵.  As a result, though found throughout the state, they are most common in the western part of Massachusetts.  Canada warbler populations have been steadily declining for the past several decades in Massachusetts and the rest of its range^1,5.  Causes of declines are unknown, but possibilities include the loss of forested wetland, maturation of forests, increased urban development, and reduced understory vegetation as a result of deer herbivory.

Climate Impacts
As temperatures increase, spring migration timing have shifted earlier for many species of birds⁶.  Among 25 species of short distance migrants (those wintering in the southern US), arrival dates averaged 13 days earlier in the period from 1951-1993 than in the period from 1903-1950.  However, many long-distance migrants, such as Canada warblers, have not changed their migration timings^6,7, even though many spring events on breeding grounds, such as flowering, leaf out, and insect emergence, are occurring earlier.  This raises concerns that timing of migrations may become mismatched to historical environmental conditions that Canada warblers have adapted to.   

Modeling conducted by the US Forest Service predicts a northward range shift for this species, with suitable habitat in Massachusetts restricted to the Berkshires over the next century⁸.