Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Oak/hickory

Oak-hickory forests, often referred to as central hardwoods-pine forest type, are usually dominated by oak species including red, white, black, or scarlet oak. Species such as hickory, maple, and birch may also be a significant proportion of the forest canopy. As this forest type extends southward, pine species are more likely to be present.

Massachusetts contains a portion of the northern extent of central hardwood forests with these communities occupying a range of site conditions. A large number of species in this community are adapted to warmer, drier conditions, including several oak and hickory species, and it is expected that these species will persist and potentially expand to new areas as climate conditions shift.

Projected Suitable Habitat for Common Tree Species:
Projected change in suitable habitat in the year 2100 based on Tree Atlas projections for a given Ecological Subsection.  Values in parentheses indicate whether suitable habitat for species will increase (+), decrease (-), or stay the same (0) under projected climate change.  The first value corresponds to a lower emissions (PCMB1) scenario whereas the second value is based on a high emissions scenario (GFDLA1FI).  Management efforts should target species that are not expected to decline under either scenario.

Central and Coastal Massachusetts

• northern red oak (0,-)
• white oak (+,+)
• eastern white pine (-,-)
• red maple (0,-)
• chestnut oak (+,+)
• black oak (+,+)
• eastern hemlock (0,-)*
• shagbark hickory (+,+)
• bitternut hickory (+,+)
• black birch (+,-)
• paper birch (-,-)
• black cherry (0,0)

Berkshires and North Quabbin

• northern red oak (+,+)
• white oak (+,+)
• eastern white pine (0,0)
• red maple (0,0)
• chestnut oak (+,+)
• black oak (+,+)
• eastern hemlock (0,0)*
• shagbark hickory (+,+)
• bitternut hickory (0,+)
• black birch (+,+)
• paper birch (-,-)
• black cherry (0,+)

For more information on the likely impacts of climate change on specific species, visit the U.S.D.A. Forest Service's Climate Change Tree Atlas.