Climate change scenario planning

Scenario planning is a collaborative exercise that allows participants to explore various futures, integrate climate and non-climate threats, and develop strategies to achieve a goal for the focal system or species (Butler et al., 2020). In this process, managers consider the different ways climate change could manifest and explore the effects of multiple potential future conditions on important resources. They select climate models whose estimated future climate conditions (i.e., climate futures) are likely to result in scenarios that are:

• Plausible, given what we know about climate and atmospheric science
• Relevant to resources the users care about
• Divergent, so the models give different results from one another (e.g., one model that predicts reduced spring rainfall and moderate increase in extreme storm frequency and another with wetter springs and stronger increase in storm frequency and strength)
• Challenging to entrenched assumptions about the future and best management strategies.

It is an appropriate approach for complex systems with drivers of change that are highly uncertain and highly impactful, and particularly useful if managers have limited or no control over external factors (Symstad et al., 2017). Numerous recent applications of scenario planning are available including for endangered species (Borgaard et al. 2019, 2022) and protected areas (Star et al., 2016).

Detailed descriptions of scenario planning and various applications can be found in Staudinger et al. (2015), the AFWA Voluntary Guidance (2023), and by the National Park Service (Star et al., 2016). Briefly, scenario planning was originally developed for military planning and has more recently been applied to natural-resource management in a climate context (Walker et al., 2003; Duinker & Greig, 2007). It is helpful for developing “no-regrets” decisions that are robust to different future conditions. Participants can think creatively and reduce uncertainties by categorizing drivers of change (e.g. climate change, social change) along two axes into generalized storylines that represent potential futures of climate and non-climate threats (Star et al., 2016). Scenario planning allows managers to explore different storylines that include a variety of climate projections (Symstad et al., 2017). For example, if precipitation projections for an area of interest have a high range of uncertainty that span both ends of extreme precipitation - drought and flooding, scenario planning creates a structure to think about managing for either extreme. Another axis is developed for a different variable with diverging outcomes, such as land protection versus land development. These two axes create four diverging scenarios (Wet and Developed, Dry and Developed, Wet and Protected, Dry and Protected) that managers can consider when developing future plans. Alternatively, participants can approach scenarios by mapping out futures they want and work backwards to understand the conditions needed to reach those futures (Star et al., 2016).

An important consideration when undertaking scenario planning is that it is a social exercise, and, as such, is influenced by the participants and their affiliations. Butler et al. (2020) reported that scenario planning workshops often do not immediately reach the decision-making stage because social dynamics of participants influenced outcomes. One way to navigate the social aspects of scenario planning is to employ a skilled facilitator (Butler et al., 2020). Successful workshops of scenario planning have been led by NOAA for two endangered species (North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) and Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar), resulting in the identification of high priority research needs and management targets (Borggaard et al., 2019, 2022). The outcomes of the Atlantic Salmon scenario planning workshop resulted in climate-related actions being integrated into the species’ Recovery Plan for the first time (USFWS and NMFS 2019). Both scenario planning workshops led to increased collaboration and coordination with external partners and the outputs from both workshops were used to develop climate change priorities for other planning, monitoring, and management documents. For example, the outputs from North Atlantic Right Whale scenario planning exercise led to increased coordination with Canadian partners, funding dedicated to understanding prey changes, and the initiation of a North Atlantic Right Whale Emergency Response Plan (Borggaard et al., 2021).

References

Adapted from

Staudinger, M.D., A.V. Karmalkar, K. Terwilliger, K. Burgio, A. Lubeck, H. Higgins, T. Rice, T.L. Morelli, A. D'Amato. 2024. A regional synthesis of climate data to inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S. DOI Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Cooperator Report. 406 p. https://doi.org/10.21429/t352-9q86

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