Case Study - National Park Service Scenario Planning

Contributed by Amanda Babson, National Park Service

Main Take Aways

Acadia National Park is integrating climate adaptation actions into wildlife management, habitat restoration, and infrastructure planning. Through workshops such as the 2015 Scenario Planning Workshop, managers are applying the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework within the park’s Resource Stewardship Strategy (RSS). This approach helps guide clear adaptation actions to ensure parks remain resilient, biodiverse, and accessible in the face of accelerating climate change.

Climate Impact

Acadia National Park is experiencing the combined pressures of climate change and growing visitation, both of which are affecting its natural ecosystems and cultural resources.

Adaption Planning / Action

National Park Service hosted a scenario planning workshop in 2015 to inform ongoing climate adaptation actions that were later incorporated into the park’s Resource Stewardship Strategy (RSS).

Background

The National Park Service (NPS) is actively incorporating climate scenario planning into park management strategies to help address the growing uncertainties posed by climate change. 

One key example is Acadia National Park, which hosted a scenario planning workshop in 2015. This workshop informed ongoing climate adaptation actions and was later integrated into the park’s broader Resource Stewardship Strategy (RSS). Through this process, the park established clear goals for natural and cultural resources, with a strong emphasis on at-risk species and climate resilience.

Climate-Responsive Stewardship Goals

Acadia’s strategy focused on

Fauna: Improving planning and responses to threats (including climate change) to benefit wildlife and habitat

At-Risk Species: Conduct climate-informed prioritization workshops using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework, helping staff identify which actions are possible in the short vs. long term.

 

A figure depicting the Resist-Accept-Direct Framework. A gradient-colored triangle labeled "RAD" with three distinct symbols outside the triangle: a purple hexagon above, an orange triangle to the lower left, and a teal diamond to the lower right. The triangle contains a tricolored gradient of purple, orange and teal until meeting in the middle. The purple portion of the triangle is labeled “R” indicating Resist, the orange part of the triangle is labeled “A” indicating Accept, and the heel portion of the

These efforts demonstrate how scenario planning can help differentiate achievable goals under a changing climate, promoting actionable, forward-thinking management.

Outcomes from the workshop directly supported projects such as:

  • Cadillac Mountain restoration

     

Crew members study vegetation plots on top of Cadillac Mountain to document vegetation. A group of people in safety vests standing on a hill, overlooking a body of water, among short shrubs and trees. The people are using vegetation sampling frames (square frames built out of PVC) to survey vegetation.

Crew members conducting research at  study plots on top of Cadillac Mountain. Image credit: C. Schmitt, Schoodic Institute                   

  • Great Meadow Hydrology Restoration: By enhancing natural water flow and accounting for rising extreme rainfall, the park improved aquatic organism passage and reduced trail and infrastructure flooding risks.

Schoodic Institute employees, Alex Cisneros Carey, Sophie Gronbeck, and Taylor Palmer, planting native grasses in a Great Meadow restoration study plot. Three people are kneeling on the ground in surrounded by mosses grasses and ferns, working with plants and soil marked by small green flags.

Schoodic Institute employees, Alex Cisneros Carey, Sophie Gronbeck, and Taylor Palmer, planting native grasses in a Great Meadow restoration study plot. Image credit: Friends of Acadia / Sam Mallon

Climate Impacts Across the Park System

For parks that haven’t conducted a full scenario planning workshop, NPS has developed a simplified approach to include climate scenarios in planning documents like the Resource Stewardship Strategy (RSS). In the Northeast, these scenarios are often distilled into two options: 

Hot-Wet: Higher risk, more extreme warming and precipitation changes

Warm-Damp: Moderate warming with fewer changes

This framework supports a practical, scalable approach for parks of varying size and capacity.

Example: George Washington Birthplace National Monument

In its RSS (NPS 2018), the park established a goal for federally listed species and candidate species of Sustained population viability of federally listed species within potential range, considering climate change, but did not have any climate specific activities for that goal. Different levels of scenario planning lead to different tangible outcomes, but parks of all sizes and staff capacities are moving towards incorporating climate scenarios into their resource management, including for wildlife.

References

Adapted from

Staudinger, M.D., A.V. Karmalkar, K. Terwilliger, K. Burgio, A. Lubeck, H. Higgins, T. Rice, T.L. Morelli, A. D'Amato. 2024. A regional synthesis of climate data to inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S. DOI Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Cooperator Report. 406 p. https://doi.org/10.21429/t352-9q86

The Final Report, Appendix, and Webinar can be found here